Unlike in most sports, ski jumping athletes still need to qualify for the competition. Only 10 of the 50 spots are prequalified, with the remaining 40 spots in Saturday's medal round going to the top jumpers in the qualifying round.In a clearly racist move, the IOC still considers ski jumping a men only sport.
Here is how the scoring works: The par distance on the normal hill is 95 meters. It’s designed so good jumpers will fly that far. A jumper gets 60 points for jumping to that spot, known as the K point. This can also be called a “K95” hill. Jumpers get two points added to the 60 point score for every meter they fly beyond the K point. They’ll lose 2 points for each meter they land short of the K point.
On top of the distance score, judges award up to 60 points (20 per judge) for good technique. There are 5 judges with the high alnd low scores discared. Good jumpers get between 16 and 19 points for technique from each judge. A medal performance will require scores of almost 300 (over two rounds), but a single jump score around 120 in may be enough to qualify.
Of course since NBC only paid $2.2 billion for the 2010-12 Olympic rights, in a great move, they've decided not to televise the first competition of the Olympics. Instead WPXI will be airing "Men's Health magazine editor David Zinczenko on healthy cooking. Also: reports on ingredients in skin-care products and cleaning agents used in car washes."
The ski jump qualifying will be all about the skiers ranked in the teens and 20s, as they need this to move on with a chance to medal. Germany (Zach Chromiak/Bankers Club) has four jumpers ranked between 12 and 20 who should do well tomorrow. Japan (John Binz/Da Nang Dynamos) will try to qualify five jumpers tomorrow including #14 Daiki Ito and #18 Noriaki Kasai. They're dark horse candidates if they qualify.
Russia (Joy Sadaly/Olympic Ring Worm Wood Stock Market District Attorney) will try to qualify four jumpers - an unlikely proposition with none ranked in the top 29 right now. Poland (Ellis Kunka/Cornballers) is an interesting entry, with Adam Malysz ranked #6 in the world and another four athletes ranked outside the top 29.
As far as medals, my pick in this event is Austria (Brittany B./Buck-Toothed Rabbit Bitches). Gregor Schlierenzauer has taken gold in eight of 19 FIS Ski Jumping World Cup events this season, and I expect him to take the gold at Vancouver. Austrians Thomas Morgenstern, Andreas Kofler and Wolfgang Loitzl are all ranked in the top five as well and one of them should be good for a bronze medal. Martin Koch also is a top ten jumper.
Though they don't have a deep team, Switzerland (Tim Lavoie/Fightin' Ovechkins) boasts the #1 ski jumper in the world right now, Simon Ammann of Switzerland. Ammann won gold in the normal hill and long hill events at Salt Lake City becoming just the second athlete ever to do so. He's my pick for silver.
Finland (Dave Spence/Paragons) boasts seven "Notable Ski Jumpers" on Wikipedia, including veteran Janne Ahonen. After claiming to retire two years ago, he's competing again and is ranked in the top ten. Though he won a team silver medal at Salt Lake City, he clearly is hungry for an individual medal and has ranked in the top 10 of the FIS World Cup standings 14 times.
Norway (Adam Claus/Ice Lugers) has tradition on its side, after all, ski jumping was invented in Norway. But a closer look reveals that the first ever ski jumper, Olaf Rye, jumped only 9.5 meters in the air in 1809. I have inadvertantly jumped that far at Holiday Valley. Despite three jumpers ranked in the top 15, I think Norway gets shut out from a medal.
And finally, Slovenia (Brian Schwartz/Nordique Combined) is basically a one man team and that man is eleventh ranked Robert Kranjek. Kranjek is better at long hill than normal hill, and is better yet at ski flying which isn't an Olympic sport yet. Team Slovenia was basically a filler pick in Round 15, and not a good one at that.
Of course, after the ski jump qualifications, the first televised event will be the Opening Ceremonies beginning at 4:30 p.m. PST. Nobody cares about the Opening Ceremonies because they are not worth fantasy points. Additionally the Chromiak "Hottest Athletes" side bet will clearly be won by whoever bet on Kazakhstan so there is no point in even watching.
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