Team Ski Jump, Cross Country Monday

Although all of our Fantasy Olympic teams have used great teamwork even in the individual events, the actual Olympics move into team competition in the ski jump and cross country today.

11 AM PST - Ski JumpingSki jumping awards its final medal in the team ski jumping competition. The team contest is played on the larger K125 hill with the score being simply a sum of the four individual score.

Brittany B. no doubt hoped for more than one gold from her Austrian team, but I think the Buck-Toothed Rabbit Bitches will take the gold here. Switzerland took both individual medals but is really a one-man team, while Austria is the only country with four top ten jumpers.

Finland (Dave Spence/Paragons) is my pick for silver, and has the only group that even approaches the collective talent of the Swiss. Competing for bronze will be Norway (Adam Claus/Ice Lugers) and Germany (Zach Chromiak/Banker's Club), with Norway having the advantage in my opinion.

1 & 1:29 PM PST - Cross Country SkiingBoth the women's and men's team sprints will be contested today, an event that we will probably see 12 minutes of on NBC 11 hours after it takes place. This is a chaotic event where the two-person team takes turns completing the 1.6km sprint course three times per skier.
On the women's side the semifinal heats will begin at 10:45 a.m. followed by the finals at 1 p.m. local time. In a horrendous decision by their manager Zach Chromiak, Norway cross country announced Sunday that double gold medalist Marit Bjoergen will skip the team sprint to focus on the remaining long-distance events. Banker's Club will go with Celine Brun-Lie and Astrid Jacobsen instead, dropping them from a gold medal to a silver in my estimation.

I think the Swedish team of Charlotte Kalla/Anna Haag (Brian Schwartz/Nordique Combined will be the beneficiaries and take gold. Russia's duo of Irina Khazova and Natalia Korosteleva (John Binz/Da Nang Dynamos is also in the mix and is my choice for bronze.

The men's team sprint begins with heats at 11:35 a.m. local time with finals scheduled for 1:29 p.m. Nordique Combined continues to be plagued by injury as Sweden recently announced that their top sprinter Emil Joensson will not compete in the team sprint. While Marcus Hellner is a great sprinter, he's now partnering with Teodor Peterson, who has never finished above sixth in a World Cup. I think that duo will probably settle for bronze.

The Norwegian duo of Ola Vigen Hattestad and Petter Northug, already favored, now has an even better chance at gold. I think the only team that could upset them is the Russian duo of Alexander Panzhinskiy/Nikita Kriukov, despite clearly having a resurrected Cold War era Soviet leader on their team.

Free Falling B. Needs Ski Jump Gold

Unfortunately this morning's Regulation of Government Influence class was more interesting than expected, which as you will see results in a couple of poorly researched previews.

12:30 PM PST - Ski Jumping
The last individual medals in ski jumping will be awarded this afternoon, in the men's Large Hill competition.

The competition is basically the same as the normal hill only with a longer par length of K125 rather than 95. So everyone's jumping 30 more meters on average. The same guys are competing as we had in the Normal Hill competition.

Ski jumping at the Olympics is all about Brittany B.'s Buck-Toothed Rabbit Bitches. Austrian Gregor Schlierenzauer is the favorite. The other Austrian jumpers Thomas Morgenstern, Andreas Kofler and Wolfgang Loitzl are all ranked in the top five as well. The Bitches had a quite disappointing performance in the Normal Hill, with just a bronze medal from Schlierenzauer.
The Bitches really need two if not three medals in this event, as they've fallen off quite a bit to seventh in the past few days after a good start. Manager Brittany B. has shown a lackadaisical attitude since Wednesday night, perhaps resting on the laurels of her volleyball success. That's not what this team needs. If B. can motivate him with a good speach, Schlierenzauer should rebound with a gold in this event. I'm also picking Morgenstern for bronze.

Tim Lavoie's Fightin' Ovechkins have the #1 ski jumper in the world and no one else. Switzerland's Simon Ammann won the normal hill competition last weekend, and he also won both the normal hill and long hill events at Salt Lake City. Ammann is a bit weaker at the long hill though, and I'm picking him for silver.
Other contenders are Adam Malayz of Poland (Ellis Kunka/Cornballers), the Normal Hill silver medalist, and Janne Ahonen of Finland (Dave Spence/Paragons). Norway (Adam Claus/Ice Lugers) has a few strong jumpers but probably none in the top 3. Slovenia (Brian Schwartz/Nordique Combined) has Robert Kranjek, who certainly would medal if Ski Flying were an Olympic sport. Alas, it is not. No medal for Nordique Combined.

1:30 PM - Cross Country Skiing
My favorite thing about cross country skiing is that no matter how long the race is, everyone uses 100% of their energy and has to lay down for ten minutes recovering to even walk away at the end. This is true whether the race is 100 yards or 100 miles.

The Men's 30k Pursuit is one of the newest events in the Winter Olympics and was just introduced at Turin. The event is a mass start race which consists of a classical 15 km cross-country style race followed by a 15 km freestyle version. Apparently freestyle skiers uses longer poles than the old schoolers. This was one of the most exciting events in '06 with a winning margin of less than a second.

The undrafted 15k gold medalist Dario Cologna of Switzerland is my choice for first. He was a surprise winner in the 15k but skied so well that I am picking him to repeat.

My pick for silver is Norwegian Petter Northug (Zach Chromiak/Banker's Club), a flop in the 15k finishing 41st. It's about time for Norway's men to produce a gold medal, but I just can't pick them anymore. Northug's coach blamed his skis for the 41st place finish; unfortunately for Chromiak, this race is conducted on skis too.

Lukas Bauer of the Czech Republic (Joy Sadaly/Olympic Ring Worm Wood Stock Market District Attorney) is my pick for bronze. He's a little better at slightly shorter races, but I just can't see anyone below the top 3 who can beat him in the 30k.

Tim Lavoie Elated At First Gold

Tim Lavoie's Fightin' Ovechkins took the first gold medal of the games, upsetting Brittany B.'s favored Buck-Toothed Rabbit Bitches to win the Normal Hill Ski Jumping cometition.
It wasn't even close as Simon Ammann easily took the gold.

B.'s squad - predicted right here to get gold and bronze - had to settle for a single bronze medal from favorite Gregor Schlierenzauer. He had a disappointing first jump and an amazing second jump for the medal.

Poland's Adam Malysz (Ellis Kunka/Cornballers) took the silver. But it provided small consolation for their manager, who at press time was in his 48th hour of crying while drunkenly muttering, "Lindsay..."

That's 16.7 points for LaVoie, 8.3 for Kunka and 4.2 for B. The victorious manager Tim LaVoie, never one to miss a chance to celebrate, is currently celebrating by reading "The Discovery Plan" from Westlaw's "Judicial Management, Process & Selection" series.

Day 2 Preview: Medal Rounds Begin

The Games begin in earnest Saturday with six medals at stake. Four of those will be up for grabs Saturday afternoon on the East Coast, although at this blog I list times in PST to make it seem like there's some chance I'm at Vancouver.

9:45 AM PST - Ski Jumping
The medal rounds of normal hill ski jumping kick off tomorrow's action. Favorite Austria is expected to give Brittany B.'s Buck-Toothed Rabbit Bitches an early lead in the fantasy points. Ski jumping was extensively covered here in the qualifying round preview. Unlike Alpine Skiing, this event is sure to go off as it's on an artificial slope.

11:45 AM PST - Alpine Skiing
Alpine skiing is scheduled to begin with the men's downhill. But the weather at Whistler has been terrible, with rain resulting in slushy conditions which cancelled training runs Friday. "If the slope remains the same as it is right now, there will certainly be no downhill," said race director Gunther Hujara.
The men's downhill is one of the marquee events of the Winter Olympics. It consists of a single high-speed run down a slope with a huge vertical drop of over 2500 feet. The event is meant to take place on basically a sheet of ice with minimal powder on top. I doubt they would run it in slushy conditions.

If the race does go off, Swiss skier Didier Cuche (Joy Sadaly/Olympic Ring Worm Wood Stock Market District Attorney) is the favorite in a deep field. The Nagano silver medalist is a seasoned veteran who is used to all conditions. He finished first in the World Cup in 2007 and 2008, and also took silver at last year's World Championships. I like him to take his first Olympic gold medal in the downhill.

Austrian Michael Walchhofer (Brittany B./Buck-Toothed Rabbit Bitches) won Wednesday's training run and is another veteran, a former slalom skiier who switched to downhill. He finished first in the 2009 World Cup and also won silver in the downhill at Turin. I think he'll repeat that performance and take silver.

If the race does begin in less than ideal conditions, this could favor Canadians Manuel Osborne-Paradis, Erik Guay and Robbie Dixon (Brian Schwartz/Nordique Combined). The Canadians have all had experience skiing Whistler in many different conditions. I think one of the trio will take the bronze.

Of course, the USA's Bode Miller (Ellis Kunka/Cornballers) is another threat. I think he was unfairly maligned for his performance at Turin, and will certainly finish in the top ten with a chance to medal.

Norway's Aksel Lund Svindal (John Binz/Da Nang Dynamos) is a name to watch throughout the skiing events, but I think the two-time overall World Cup winner is a better bet for the combined gold medal than downhill. Switzerland's talented contingent of Ambrosi Hoffman, Didier Defago and Carlo Janka are all threats to medal as well.

Remember, if you need to stop at the bottom, snowplow.

Noon PST - Ice Hockey
Sweden faces off against Switzerland in the first women's hockey game of the Vancouver Games.
Sweden (John Binz/Da Nang Dynamos) took silver at Turin in a huge surprise, on the way becoming the first team other than Canada to beat the USA. Sweden and Finland are expected to battle for the bronze this time around.

Switzerland (Zach Chromiak/Bankers Club), meanwhile, is basically a long shot despite being sixth best in the world. Although the Swiss finished 4th at the 2008 World Championships, there's an extreme lack of parity in the sport meaning basically the top four countries win all the medals. It's mainly an issue of popularity as Sweden has 2,888 women's hockey players while Switzerland has 735. I'm taking Sweden to win this game, 5-0.

Noon PST - Speed Skating
In an event which you probably won't see unless the men's downhill is cancelled, the Netherlands' Sven Kramer (Ellis Kunka/Cornballers) is a decided favorite in the men's 5000 Meter speed skating race.

How much of a favorite is he? If you bet a dollar on him to win, and he wins, you will win 20 cents. I will not go against odds like that. Sven Kramer is the reigning world champion, the world record holder, and the pick to win gold. He won silver at Turin but has improved a lot since.

Norway's Håvard Bøkko (undrafted) has a circle over the A in his first name, but I bet his girlfriend writes it as a heart. With a crossed out O in his last name as well, and a silver medal in the 5000 at last year's World Championships, that's good for a silver medal at Vancouver.

Italy's Enrico Fabris (Brian Schwartz/Nordique Combined) took the bronze in this event at Turin and also is a former world record holder, a record he held for a week before Sven Kramer broke it. I think he gets bronze again though it's really a toss-up over Bob De Jong of the Netherlands. De Jong is always a threat in any long race, but he's better at even longer races so I think he won't medal until the 10,000.

American Chad Hedrick (Zach Chromiak/Bankers Club) won gold at Turin and is a great champion who can't be discounted, but I'm guessing he's lost a step by age 32 and finishes no better than fourth. Also a threat is Russia's Ivan Skobrev (Adam Claus/Ice Lugers), the rare skater who's good at every event.

1 PM PST - Biathlon
It is 3 a.m. and I am not even going to pretend to know anything about the Women's 7.5km Sprint. I can report that the two skills involved in biathlon are cross-country skiing and rifle shooting.

Nonetheless, betting sites tell me that the favorite is Germany's Magdalena Neuner (Adam Claus/Ice Lugers). This chick looks super talented to me. Romance in Durango, indeed.
Keep checking back like I know you will. All rosters will be posted Saturday afternoon as well as previews of the evening's action. Results and the first standings will be posted Saturday night.

Day 1 Recap: Sadaly's Team Terrible In Ski Jump

The Olympics kicked off this morning with normal hill ski jump qualifying. Eight of the nine fantasy teams qualified all their participants.

Among the fantasy picks, Russian Ilja Rosliakov (Joy Sadaly/Olympic Ring Worm Wood Stock Market District Attorney) was the only jumper not to qualify. It was no disgrace to Ilja, who jumped with true Olympic spirit, albeit not very far. But it is a definite disgrace to Joy Sadaly for picking him. Even the three Russians who qualified placed no better than 26th.
Germany's Michael Uhrmann (Zach Chromiak/Bankers Club) was the top qualifier, jumping 106 meters, and also had the best form with 56.5 of 60 judge's points. Surprisingly, the Czech Republic's Jakub Janda (undrafted) had the second best qualifying score.

Favorite Gregor Schlierenzauer (Brittany B./Buck-Toothed Rabbit Bitches), who was already prequalified, had the morning's longest jump at 107 meters. Pretty good for a K95 hill, according to this reporter who has never before looked at ski jump results.

Provided nobody drops their country's flag at tonight's Opening Ceremony, at least eight of the nine fantasy teams did well on Day One.

Day 1 Preview: Ski Jump Qualifying

Although the Winter Olympics don't officially start until the opening ceremony tomorrow night, the Fantasy Winter Olympics begin promptly at 10:00 AM PST with the Ski Jumping Normal Hill Individual Qualification Round.
Unlike in most sports, ski jumping athletes still need to qualify for the competition. Only 10 of the 50 spots are prequalified, with the remaining 40 spots in Saturday's medal round going to the top jumpers in the qualifying round.

In a clearly racist move, the IOC still considers ski jumping a men only sport.

Here is how the scoring works: The par distance on the normal hill is 95 meters. It’s designed so good jumpers will fly that far. A jumper gets 60 points for jumping to that spot, known as the K point. This can also be called a “K95” hill. Jumpers get two points added to the 60 point score for every meter they fly beyond the K point. They’ll lose 2 points for each meter they land short of the K point.

On top of the distance score, judges award up to 60 points (20 per judge) for good technique. There are 5 judges with the high alnd low scores discared. Good jumpers get between 16 and 19 points for technique from each judge. A medal performance will require scores of almost 300 (over two rounds), but a single jump score around 120 in may be enough to qualify.

Of course since NBC only paid $2.2 billion for the 2010-12 Olympic rights, in a great move, they've decided not to televise the first competition of the Olympics. Instead WPXI will be airing "Men's Health magazine editor David Zinczenko on healthy cooking. Also: reports on ingredients in skin-care products and cleaning agents used in car washes."

The ski jump qualifying will be all about the skiers ranked in the teens and 20s, as they need this to move on with a chance to medal. Germany (Zach Chromiak/Bankers Club) has four jumpers ranked between 12 and 20 who should do well tomorrow. Japan (John Binz/Da Nang Dynamos) will try to qualify five jumpers tomorrow including #14 Daiki Ito and #18 Noriaki Kasai. They're dark horse candidates if they qualify.

Russia (Joy Sadaly/Olympic Ring Worm Wood Stock Market District Attorney) will try to qualify four jumpers - an unlikely proposition with none ranked in the top 29 right now. Poland (Ellis Kunka/Cornballers) is an interesting entry, with Adam Malysz ranked #6 in the world and another four athletes ranked outside the top 29.

As far as medals, my pick in this event is Austria (Brittany B./Buck-Toothed Rabbit Bitches). Gregor Schlierenzauer has taken gold in eight of 19 FIS Ski Jumping World Cup events this season, and I expect him to take the gold at Vancouver. Austrians Thomas Morgenstern, Andreas Kofler and Wolfgang Loitzl are all ranked in the top five as well and one of them should be good for a bronze medal. Martin Koch also is a top ten jumper.

Though they don't have a deep team, Switzerland (Tim Lavoie/Fightin' Ovechkins) boasts the #1 ski jumper in the world right now, Simon Ammann of Switzerland. Ammann won gold in the normal hill and long hill events at Salt Lake City becoming just the second athlete ever to do so. He's my pick for silver.

Finland (Dave Spence/Paragons) boasts seven "Notable Ski Jumpers" on Wikipedia, including veteran Janne Ahonen. After claiming to retire two years ago, he's competing again and is ranked in the top ten. Though he won a team silver medal at Salt Lake City, he clearly is hungry for an individual medal and has ranked in the top 10 of the FIS World Cup standings 14 times.

Norway (Adam Claus/Ice Lugers) has tradition on its side, after all, ski jumping was invented in Norway. But a closer look reveals that the first ever ski jumper, Olaf Rye, jumped only 9.5 meters in the air in 1809. I have inadvertantly jumped that far at Holiday Valley. Despite three jumpers ranked in the top 15, I think Norway gets shut out from a medal.

And finally, Slovenia (Brian Schwartz/Nordique Combined) is basically a one man team and that man is eleventh ranked Robert Kranjek. Kranjek is better at long hill than normal hill, and is better yet at ski flying which isn't an Olympic sport yet. Team Slovenia was basically a filler pick in Round 15, and not a good one at that.

Of course, after the ski jump qualifications, the first televised event will be the Opening Ceremonies beginning at 4:30 p.m. PST. Nobody cares about the Opening Ceremonies because they are not worth fantasy points. Additionally the Chromiak "Hottest Athletes" side bet will clearly be won by whoever bet on Kazakhstan so there is no point in even watching.